[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 11 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 3N30W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF 4.5N FROM
17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE EQUATOR FROM 16W-19W AND FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 28W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NEAR 20N99W NE TO
OVER THE E UNITED STATES BEYOND 32N91W MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS MOVEMENT IS IN PART DUE TO A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER N MEXICO/W TEXAS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GULF BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FUNNELING TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND OVER
THE SE UNTIED STATES. WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W SW ACROSS THE S
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF E OF 88W...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
16N W OF 80W AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY AIR COVERS THE SAME AREA. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N68W.

E CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W NNE INTO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NEAR 27N63W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND THE ATLC S OF 27N FROM 55W-70W. THIS FLOW
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 50W-80W WHICH
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ESPECIALLY S OF 14N. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N39W SW TO 25N49W.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER MOROCCO SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND
WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 20N27W TO A BASE NEAR 13N31W WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW WITHIN 300/325 NM OF THE AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVERS THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA ISLANDS W TO 30N35W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC
WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA S OF 15N
FROM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADE FLOW
DOMINATES THE SAME AREA THUS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA ESPECIALLY E OF 35W.

$$
WALLACE


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