[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 08 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 3N1W 6N9W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W...EQUATOR AT 49W...1S56W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2.5N TO 4N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM EQUATOR TO 5N EAST
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS LOUISIANA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...CONNECTING TO AN 1014 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 28N94W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 22N97W
AND 22N99W. STATIONARY FRONT 22N99W CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO
27N101W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER AREA NORTHWEST OF 20N96W
24N90W 26N80W...AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 18N ALONG 60W/61W DRIFTING WEST DURING
THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN
58W AND 62W. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ARE OBSCURING EVERYTHING
UNDERNEATH THEM. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS AREA...PART OF THE BROADER AREA OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING
FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD 20N50W AND
BEYOND. SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN AN AREA
OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAKENING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
25N44W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N74W AND 17N82W. THIS TROUGH
SHOWS UP LESS AND LESS IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
OF 08/0000 UTC AND SLIGHTLY BETTER IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE...WITH
COMPARATIVELY EVEN DRIER AIR FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND
85W...COVERING THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...FROM SOUTH OF JAMAICA NORTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N41W TO 26N45W TO 21N50W. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF 32N HAS DISSIPATED. NO DEEP SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 31N52W TO 1030 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N62W TO 31N71W 30N79W AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N87W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
NORTH OF 10N EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAKENING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
25N44W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N74W AND 17N82W. THIS TROUGH
SHOWS UP LESS AND LESS IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
OF 08/0000 UTC AND SLIGHTLY BETTER IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...ARE EAST OF 19N60W
14N70W 13N72W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER SCALE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH SPANS THE TROPICS
AND SUBTROPICS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 28N12W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW
ALONG THE MIDDLE MOROCCO COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 5W AND 30W.

$$
MT




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