[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 07 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N33W 5N50W 4N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
2N24W-5N42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
S TO OVER MEXICO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW JUST ENTERING THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N W OF 95W. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
N FROM A 1013 MB LOW IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W TO INLAND ACROSS
LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO INLAND
OVER E MEXICO NEAR 22N98W THEN ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS DRAWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR OVER TEXAS AND BORDERING THE GULF. JETSTREAM
EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER N OUT OF THE REGION WITH
UPPER WINDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AVERAGING 90 TO 110 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N
OF 26N. REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N94W NE ALONG 26N86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE ATLC NEAR 30N78W TO BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THIS AREA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N38W W ALONG
25N52W THEN SW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
20N68W INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
BELIZE. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVERS
THE AREA FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN 65W-85W THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
COVERS THE ATLC W OF 55W AND N OF 23N FROM 40W-55W AND ALL OF
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS W OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 26N38W EXTENDING FROM 23N44W
NE TO BEYOND 32N40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 16N. RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL AND E ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E
OF 60W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR
8N36W. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80-110 KT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FLOW. THIS FLOW AND JETSTREAM IS ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITHIN 350/375 NM OF LINE
FROM COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA OVER GUYANA NEAR 8N59W NE TO 18N42W
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INCLUDING
THE SE CARIBBEAN. IN THE NE ATLC...A MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF MOROCCO AND
WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 28N13W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA
N OF 20N E OF 24W. THIS IS FUNNELING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR INTO THE NE ATLC N OF 24N FROM 16W-26W.

$$
WALLACE


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