[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 07 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 4N1W 4N10W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 5N50W 5N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
1N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 31N85W
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA TO 29N92W. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 29N92W TO 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N95.5W. STATIONARY FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 25N100W AND 31N102W IN WEST
TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE UNITED STATES
GULF COASTAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF WATERS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING OVER THE TOP OF SOME
OF THIS DRY AIR...NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 25N90W 26N80W. SURFACE
RIDGE RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 28N77W TO
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 26N85W TO 24N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 8N IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO
16N ALONG 60W/61W...MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THIS AREA...PART OF THE BROADER AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD 20N50W AND
BEYOND. SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN AN AREA
OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N41W TO
24N55W TO A WESTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N66W...TO SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE...WITH
COMPARATIVELY EVEN DRIER AIR FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND
82W COVERING THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...FROM SOUTH OF JAMAICA NORTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N43W TO 19N45W. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN 1020 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 34N38W. NO DEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE RIDGE
FROM 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N62W TO 29N77W
TO INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N41W TO
24N55W TO A WESTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N66W...TO SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...RUN FROM 7N TO 23N
BETWEEN 20W AND 64W ARE EAST OF 12N69W 16N64W 20N60W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER SCALE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH SPANS THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL 27N13W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW ALONG THE MIDDLE
MOROCCO COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR...NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 5W AND 30W.

$$
MT



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