[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 07 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N1W 5N20W 2N32W 5N51W 5N55W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
1010 MB LOW HAS FORMED OFFSHORE OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR
27.5N95.5W AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO ITS E HAS STARTED MOVING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SE LOUISIANA NEAR HOUMA THEN TO
29.5N87.5W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR CRESTVIEW FLORIDA.  A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXITS S OF THE LOW TO 27N96W INTO NE
MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO.  NEARLY OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
GULF N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO ORLANDO WITH INCREASING
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.  THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE ZONE AND UPPER ENERGY LEAVING THE SW
UNITED STATES HAS CAUSED THE SURFACE LOW FORMATION BRINGING
CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN FARTHER INLAND.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
A WET FRI FOR SE TEXAS THRU LOUISIANA HEAVIER FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE CAST WHILE A FRONT OVER FLORIDA WASHES OUT BECAUSE OF
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF.  LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE
IN THE W ATLC SAVE ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS IN ELY FLOW FROM A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N60W RIDGING THRU CENTRAL FLORIDA SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.  BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE N OF 23N E OF 75W ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE PREVENTING ANY TSTMS.  THE VERY WARM WEATHER
MOST OF THE AREA SAVE TEXAS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING IS LIKELY TO
COOL OFF DRAMATICALLY AS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS WITH MORE
RIDGING ON THE W COAST OF THE US AND A TROF IN THE CENTRAL US.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERCAST SKIES AND PLENTY OF WET WEATHER ARE ON THE WAY AS A
MASS OF MOISTURE/RAIN IS ON THE DOORSTEP FOR THE E CARIBBEAN...
ALREADY IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE AREA IS DIVIDED INTO TWO BY A TROUGH FROM ABOUT THE MONA
PASSAGE SW TO SE NICARAGUA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE
AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT IN SMALL SHOWER POCKETS IN
THOSE AREAS.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE MORE MOIST SW
FLOW E OF THE PREVIOUS LINE WITH THICK CLOUDS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 63W PLUS TSTMS NEAR
THE E COAST OF TRINIDAD.  THE WET PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST
WITH THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE STAYING S OF PUERTO RICO BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL.  IT IS LOOKING
LIKE A CLOUDY RAINY WEEKEND FOR THE GENERALLY SUNNY E CARIBBEAN
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIER WEATHER THE FARTHER NW YOU GO.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC TROF REMAINS BENEATH A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 27N41W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW IS PART OF A BROKEN UPPER TROUGH FROM
27N41W TO A MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE.  VERY
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE WESTERNMOST LOW WITH NO DETECTABLE SURFACE
WEATHER IMPACT.  A HUGE RIDGE NEAR 6N39W DOMINATES THE TROPICAL
ATLC WITH LATITUDE OF THE RIDGE BEING MUCH FARTHER N THAN
TYPICAL... WITH AXIS FROM 3N26W 6N39W 6N52W.  WEAK SURFACE TROF
IS JUST W OF BARBADOS S OF 16N AND...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUS A BIT OF UPPER SUPPORT...IS LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 49W-61W WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-61W.  HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE AREA ARE BEING SENT EASTWARD ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLC
THRU THE CAPE VERDES INTO W AFRICA.  THE FAR NE ATLC REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW NEAR CENTRAL NW
SAHARA WITH ONLY LIMITED SURFACE EFFECTS.  20-25 KT WINDS ARE
BLOWING OFFSHORE OF AFRICA WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST MIDDLE CLOUDS
BETWEEN 27W-60W N OF 12N.

$$
BLAKE

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