[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 07 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA
...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N1W 5N20W 3N35W 4N51W 7N59W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 37W-46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 8N W OF 49W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN
45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-36W AND FROM 1.5N-6.5N BETWEEN
15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA
FLORIDA TO ABOUT 60 MILES S OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THEN STATIONARY TO 27N96W INTO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO.  NEARLY
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO
ORLANDO WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER WATER.  A WEAK LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE NW GULF WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM OVERHEAD AND UPPER
ENERGY LEAVING THE SW UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
A WET FRI FOR SE TEXAS THRU LOUISIANA NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH
OUT BEFORE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS THRU CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF REMAINS FIRM.  LITTLE
WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE W ATLC SAVE ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS IN
ELY FLOW FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N60W RIDGING THRU CENTRAL
FLORIDA SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE N OF
23N E OF 75W ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  UPPER RIDGING IS IN
PLACE WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVENTING ANY
TSTMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY THOUGH SOME ARE ON THE WAY FOR
LATER TODAY AS A MASS OF MOISTURE/RAIN IS ON THE DOORSTEP FOR
THE E CARIBBEAN.  FOR NOW THE AREA IS DIVIDED INTO TWO BY A
MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM ABOUT THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO SE
NICARAGUA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF A LINE
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS PRESENT IN SMALL SHOWER POCKETS IN THOSE AREAS.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE MORE MOIST SW FLOW E OF THE
PREVIOUS LINE WITH THICKENING CLOUDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N.    THE WET PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST... BRINGING THE UNSTABLE WEATHER OVER THE W ATLC AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS THRU THE E CARIBBEAN LEADING TO A WET WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC TROF REMAINS BENEATH A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 28N41W WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW IS PART OF A BROKEN UPPER TROUGH FROM
28N41W TO A MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE.  VERY
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE WESTERNMOST LOW WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACT.  A HUGE RIDGE NEAR 6N40W DOMINATES THE TROPICAL
ATLC WITH LATITUDE OF THE RIDGE BEING MUCH FARTHER N THAN
TYPICAL... WITH AXIS FROM 4N27W TO 7N56W.  WEAK SURFACE TROF IS
ALONG 57W S OF 16N AND COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUS A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT IS LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 49W-59W.  HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS ARE BEING PULLED EASTWARD ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE ATLC THRU THE CAPE VERDES INTO W AFRICA.  THE FAR NE
ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW NEAR
26N15W OVER NW SAHARA... THOUGH LIMITED SURFACE EFFECTS ARE
OCCURRING.  STRONG 25 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING OFFSHORE OF AFRICA
WITH AT LEAST BROKEN IF NOT OVERCAST LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS BETWEEN
27W-60W N OF 12N.

$$
BLAKE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net