[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 06 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 4N40W 5N50W 4N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 29W-32W...FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 38W-44W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  RIDGE AXIS IS IS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WELL BEYOND N FLORIDA AT 30N81W.  A
JETSTREAM IS PASSING OVER N MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH 100 KT WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES N OF THE LINE
20N105W 30N83W 31N70W.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  ON
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH A 20 DEGREE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W.
WARM EASTERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 63W.  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 63W HAS UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO A
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  ON
THE SURFACE...STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ISLANDS...AND OVER THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N48W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO 24N BETWEEN
30W-63W.  THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION ALONG 20N60W 24N40W
23N30W.  A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N41W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
37W-40W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N15W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM
14N-36N BETWEEN 5W-30W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
THIS AREA.  ON THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N42W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO
26N44W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A SMALL TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 56W FROM
7N-16N MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 47W-57W.

$$
FORMOSA



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