[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 06 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N10W 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W 5N50W
5N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 2N EAST OF 4W...SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 26W AND 40W...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N40W
5N46W 8N50W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N...AND
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
JET STREAM WITHIN 200 TO 275 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N110W IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 29N100W IN SOUTH TEXAS JUST EAST OF THE
TEXAS BIG BEND...BEYOND 32N91W ALONG THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS IN THIS BAND REACH AT LEAST
110 KT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING NORTHEASTWARD ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF TEXAS
TOWARD TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS AND BEYOND. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT...PART OF A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES...THROUGH 32N88W IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
TO 26N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N100W...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 30N103W. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 30N103W BEYOND 32N104W FROM WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 30N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N60W TO 29N70W TO FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W IN AN AREA OF
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N42W TO
26N48W TO 20N67W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N76W AND 13N79W.
THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WEAKENING A BIT MORE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THEN FORTIFIED
BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE WET PATTERN WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WITH INCREASING DEEP-LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE LATITUDE OF GUADELOUPE.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 20N60W 11N67W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
ARE EAST OF 12N69W 16N64W 20N60W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1018 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N42W. SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N42W TO 26N48W
TO 20N67W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N76W
AND 13N79W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...ARE EAST OF 12N69W
16N64W 20N60W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER SCALE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH SPANS THE TROPICS
AND SUBTROPICS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 25N16W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MOROCCO COAST AND SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 6N TO 16N ALONG 55W/56W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...RUNS FROM 15N TO 32N
BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

$$
MT


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