[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 06 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 3N10W 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W 5N47W
5N53W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 1N0W
1N5W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 6N20W 3N30W
3.5N40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE NEW YEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
NW GULF...FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE INTO
N MEXICO.  ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT.  OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE REGION FROM A 1024
MB HIGH JUST S OF BERMUDA RIDGING WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE ELY
TRADEWINDS BUT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR W OF 75W WHILE CLOUDS
THICKEN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY N OF 23N E OF 75W.  MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS NEAR 24N87W IN THE S-CENTRAL GULF RIDGING E THRU THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SQUELCHING SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NW GULF.  THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD MOVE A BIT TO
THE E BUT REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF...STALLING THE
FRONT IN THE W GULF LATE TODAY.  JETSTREAM MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL JET CURRENTLY OVER N MEXICO SHOULD ENHANCE
OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT AND A POSSIBLE WEAK GULF LOW FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AREA IS DIVIDED INTO TWO BY A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE SW TO W PANAMA WITH A LOW NEAR 13N76W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 70W WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS PRESENT IN SMALL SHOWER POCKETS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE MORE MOIST SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
WITH GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES E OF 68W.  THE WET PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE WITH INCREASING DEEP-LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO
AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S
OF THE LATITUDE OF GUADELOUPE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PERSISTENT 1014 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N43W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE N OF LOW BETWEEN 38W-43W.
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 20N51W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 23N43W 30N38W.
LOW IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A MID/UPPER TROF ALONG 31N42W
27N46W 25.5N55W SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR W
OF THE TROF AXIS CREATING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LEAVING THE AREA WITH JUST A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH PROBABLY REMAINING THIS WEEK.  THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS COVERED BY A LARGE...BROAD UPPER HIGH NEAR 6N43W
WITH RIDGING S OF 25N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE RIDGING
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 49W-56W... PART OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROF ALONG 55W S OF 14N.  IN THE E ATLC..A
HIGH-OVER-LOW UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE PAST WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
LOW OVER NW SAHARA WITH TROF S TO 8N20W.  STRONG 25 KT WINDS ARE
BLOWING OFFSHORE OF AFRICA WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN
25W-40W N OF 12N.

$$
BLAKE



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