[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 06 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 5N20W 4N40W 6N55W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 4N-6.5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM
EQ-3.5N BETWEEN 9W-15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM
OF LINES 5N20W 3N31W AND 2N4W 2N0W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 1.5N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BIGGEST NEWS TONIGHT IS THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE YEAR
BARRELLING INTO THE NW GULF.  IN FACT THIS IS THE FIRST FRONT
SINCE THE ONE RELATED TO CHRISTMAS SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT THE GULF
COAST.  THE FRONT IS APPROACHING LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AND HAS
RECENTLY PASSED GALVESTON PLUS CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.  GENERALLY
LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT... MOST CONCENTRATED N OF 28N.   OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE REGION FROM A 1026 MB LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA RIDGING
WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF.  SOME PATCHY
SHOWERS ARE IN THE ELY TRADEWINDS BUT SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 24N88W IN THE S-CENTRAL GULF
RIDGING E THRU THE BAHAMAS WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ERADICATING
THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  SOME MOISTURE IS
JUST BEGINNING TO EDGE INTO THE NW GULF... OTHERWISE DRY AIR IS
THE DOMINATE FEATURE.  THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN THE W GULF
LATER TODAY WITH AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT WITH A POSSIBLE GULF
LOW FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AREA IS BASICALLY DIVIDED INTO TWO BY A MID/UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO W PANAMA WITH A LOW NEAR 13N75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES NEAR AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
MORE MOIST SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH GENERALLY
OVERCAST SKIES....E OF 68W.  THE WET PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH INCREASING DEEP-LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING
TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE E CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY S OF THE LATITUDE OF GUADELOUPE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N44W... 1016 MB... WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE N OF LOW
BETWEEN 38W-43W.  SURFACE TROF EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 19N50W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROF
AXIS N OF 23N.  LOW IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A MID/UPPER TROF
ALONG 31N44W TO 26N50W SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE/
DRY AIR W OF THE TROF AXIS CREATING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LEAVING THE AREA WITH
JUST A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PROBABLY REMAINING THIS WEEK.  THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS COVERED BY A LARGE...BROAD UPPER HIGH NEAR
6N45W WITH RIDGING S OF 25N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.  GENERALLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ENCOMPASS THE
RIDGING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 48W-55W...
PART OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF ALONG 53W S OF 14N.  IN THE E
ATLC..A HIGH-OVER-LOW UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE
PAST WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS AND LOW OVER NW SAHARA WITH TROF S TO 8N22W.  THERE IS
NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW BUT IR SATELLITE
REVEALS THAT THE STRONG TRADEWINDS NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST HAVE
COOLED THE SHELF WATER SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

$$
BLAKE


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