[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 05 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 1N30W 1N50W 5N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-12W...FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 46W-50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  RIDGE AXIS IS IS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WELL BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT INLAND OVER N MEXICO
AND TEXAS.  A JETSTREAM IS PASSING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH 100
KT WINDS.  ON THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N68W.  THUS...THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH 10-15 KT WINDS...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HAS EASTERLY FLOW.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 13N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
HAS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS E
OF 70W DUE TO A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.  ON THE SURFACE...STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ISLANDS...AND OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 5N42W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO 27N BETWEEN 30W-70W.  THE ENTIRE AREA HAS
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  A
100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION ALONG 20N60W 25N45W 23N30W.  A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-38N BETWEEN 37W-44W.  ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N17W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN
5W-30W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THIS AREA.  ON
THE SURFACE...A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
29N45W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 23N47W 17N52W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A SMALL TROUGH IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 52W FROM 6N-14N MOVING W AT 15
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA



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