[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 05 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W 1N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 7W AND 14W...AND FROM
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 49W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 5N TO
16N ALONG 51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W...AND IN
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 7N56W 7N50W
2N52W 7N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE
CENTER IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE
NEXT DIP IN THE JET STREAM IS PASSING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPING COLD OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE RETURN FLOW ALREADY HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE GULF...
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
32N62W...TO AN 1026 MB ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N69W
TO 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W...TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 90W IN MASSES/CLUSTERS
OF LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 31N46W
TO 24N60W...ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WEAKENING A BIT
MORE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THEN
FORTIFIED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 70W. SHIELD OF OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF 20N62W 15N70W 13N71W...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1015 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N47W. TROUGH FROM LOW
CENTER TO 24N48W AND 19N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 31N46W TO 24N60W...ACROSS EASTERN
HISPANIOLA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W.
SHIELD OF OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 20N62W
15N70W 13N71W...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVING OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER SCALE RIDGE ALONG 29N39W 16N43W
7N48W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL 23N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MOROCCO COAST. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 5N TO 16N ALONG 51W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W...AND IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 7N56W 7N50W 2N52W 7N56W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...RUNS FROM
13N TO 29N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W.

$$
MT


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