[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 05 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N20W 4N40W 5N48W 2N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 2N
FROM 18W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 33W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH
LOCATED IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W NE ALONG THE E COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TO BEYOND 32N80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
ALL OF THE GULF AND THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF AND W
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA WITH AN
EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 54W-94W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N74W.
SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG ARE REPORTED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO MEXICO NW OF VERACRUZ. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO OVER THE W ATLC AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...
AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE BY A NARROWING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 32N47W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 28N52W 21N66W
ACROSS E HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER NE NICARAGUA.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS PRODUCING VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 22N50W THEN SW TO
W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N FROM 36W-47W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE SAME PERIOD AND BECOME A SURFACE
TROUGH ONLY.

EAST ATLANTIC...
VERY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
27N FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 8N45W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
10N-25N BETWEEN 30W-65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 48W/49W FROM 4N-15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 44W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NW OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED N OF
THE REGION ABOUT 500 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 30N AND THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 22N17W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 15N-30N E OF 28W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
BEYOND 32N22W SW TO 18N40W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N AND REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NE
ATLC MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER
AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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