[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 05 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N30W 6N47W 3N54W 3N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 35W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH
LOCATED IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N91W NE ALONG THE E COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TO BEYOND 32N80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
ALL OF THE GULF AND THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 70W. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF AND W
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N55W SW TO A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W TO OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES TO NEAR 31N93W. SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG ARE REPORTED ALONG
THE N GULF COAST FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE TEXAS. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO OVER THE W ATLC
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...
AREA CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N47W SW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N63W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR CENTRAL NICARAGUA. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W AND IS PRODUCING VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N49W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 20N50W THEN SW TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N62W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N FROM 35W-48W. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE SAME PERIOD.

EAST ATLANTIC...
VERY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
24N FROM JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 7N45W. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N SIDE
OF THIS CIRCULATION ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC W OF 35W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 65W. SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 15N46W TO 3N48W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 42W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NW OF AN UPPER
LOW IN THE NE ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION ABOUT
500 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 24N17W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM BEYOND 32N24W SW TO 18N40W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE UPPER HIGH/LOW OVER THE NE WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE
REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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