[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 08 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 4N2W 5N10W 4N20W 4N30W 4N40W 4N53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3.5N TO 4.5N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM EQUATOR TO 10N
EAST OF 50W...MAINLY SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO A NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N94W. STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W...AND THEN CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N100W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF 20N96W 24N90W 26N80W...AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD
THE EAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N65W TO INTERIOR VENEZUELA NEAR 7N69W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N72W 14N65W 16N59W...AND EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ARE OBSCURING EVERYTHING UNDERNEATH THEM. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS
AREA...PART OF THE BROADER AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
EVENTUALLY FLATTENS OUT TO PURELY ZONAL FLOW EAST OF 50W...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD 20N50W AND BEYOND. SURFACE
EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN AN AREA OF
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 20N60W TO 16N76W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE...WITH COMPARATIVELY EVEN DRIER
AIR FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 86W...COVERING THE AREA
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...FROM SOUTH OF
JAMAICA NORTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N45W TO 22N47W. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF 32N HAS DISSIPATED. NO DEEP SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 32N51W TO 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N62W TO 31N71W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 28N80W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 10N EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
HAD STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED FINALLY. ONLY THE CARIBBEAN SEA PART
OF THE TROUGH REMAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA...ARE
EAST OF 20N60W 14N71W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER
SCALE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC AND EVENTUALLY ZONAL FLOW
WHICH SPANS THE TROPICS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 25N44W
20N60W...WHERE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH HAD BEEN...AND SOUTH
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 28N11W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MOROCCO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
6W AND 30W.

$$
MT



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