[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 03 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 6N15W 4N25W 7N40W 7N60W 4N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
27W-32W...FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 35W-38W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
EASTERLY WINDS STILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA DUE TO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W.  NO FRONTS HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE GULF SINCE THE DAY AFTER XMAS AND ONLY A WEAK FRONT
IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THANKS TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE CUBA BUT
IS NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER.  WINDS ARE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF.  A FEW SHOWERS
PERSIST IN ISOLATED LOW/MID CLOUD CLUSTERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA.  OVERNIGHT FOG PROBLEMS SHOULD PERSIST WHERE COOL COASTAL
WATERS ARE MEETING THE WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
THE AREA IS CONTROLLED BY A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS
FROM BEYOND SE CUBA TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITH SUBSIDENCE NEAR
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION BUT THERE ARE STILL
PATCHES OF SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT ARE MOVING QUICKLY WWD
OVER THE CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...N OF THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND HONDURAS. WINDS OVER THE
WATER REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KT WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS JUST NW OF COLOMBIA.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
A 1006 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR 27N49W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E OF THE CENTER ALONG 28N44W 22N45W
17N50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY COLLOCATED WITH THE SFC
LOW AND SOME DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 42W-45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF N OF 27N
BETWEEN 46W-51W.  FARTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 8N43W AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE N SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NE
SOUTH AMERICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 13N-21N. A SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 12N42W 4N42W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL...
HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN... SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.. IS IN THE E ATLC
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SE OF THE AZORES
AND THE LOW NEAR 25N25W.   STRONG SURFACE ELY TRADES IN THE FAR
NE ATLC NEAR AFRICA HAVE WEAKENED A BIT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS
RATHER THAN 30 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST W OF SPAIN DIMINISHES.

$$
FORMOSA


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