[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 03 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 5N14W 4N25W 7N40W 7N59W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 10N W OF 56W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-50W.  DISSIPATING TSTMS
CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 1.5N4W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS TURNED INTO A BROKEN RECORD WITH ELY
WINDS STILL CONTROLLING THE REGION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-LATITUDE W ATLC.  NO FRONTS HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GULF SINCE
THE DAY AFTER XMAS AND ONLY A WEAK FRONT THU IS FORECAST THANKS
TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES... AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE NW GULF BY
EARLY THU.  A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS BUT IS LIKELY TO SIT AND DISSIPATE.  MID/UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE CUBA BUT IS NOT
HAVING MUCH EFFECT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER.  WINDS ARE IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE W ATLC AND E GULF (EXCEPT FOR 25 KT OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS)..A TOUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  A FEW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN ISOLATED LOW/MID CLOUD CLUSTERS THRU THE
ENTIRE REGION.  DENSE MORNING FOG HAS BURNED OFF FROM
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BUT OVERNIGHT FOG PROBLEMS SHOULD PERSIST WHERE
COOL COASTAL WATERS ARE MEETING THE WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR FROM
THE GULF.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIRTING THE NW PORTION OF
THE RIDGE POSITIONED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SE LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN...
THE AREA IS CONTROLLED BY A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FROM BEYOND
SE CUBA INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITH SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD ONLY LINGERING IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  A BIT DRIER AIR CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE NEAR
PUERTO RICO THOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE
SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION BUT THERE ARE STILL
PATCHES OF SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT ARE MOVING QUICKLY WWD
OVER THE CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...N OF THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND
ALONG THE COSTA RICAN COAST. WINDS OVER THE WATER REMAIN
STRONG...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KT EXCEPT STRONGER JUST NW OF
COLOMBIA.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
AN OCCLUDED 1012 MB GALE IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR 28N49W WITH
THE OCCLUSION EXTENDING ALONG 29N51W 31N48W 29N45W...THEN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N49W 16N56W.  THE FRONTS ARE WEAKENING AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONES.  A SFC TROF
EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 27N47W 23N50W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
BASICALLY COLLOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND SOME DIVERGENCE E OF
THE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
26N BETWEEN 42W-45W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
LOW ITSELF N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-51W.  FARTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N42W AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE
N SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN
13N-21N. A SFC TROF IS MOVING FROM E TO W OVER THE E ATLC ALONG
20N34W 28N36W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROF.
HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN... SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.. IS IN THE E ATLC
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SE OF THE AZORES
AND THE LOW NEAR 25N25W.  NARROW SWATH OF DRY AIR EXTENDS ON THE
N SIDE OF THE LOW FROM SRN MOROCCO THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS.
STRONG ELY TRADES IN THE FAR NE ATLC NEAR AFRICA HAVE WEAKENED A
BIT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS RATHER THAN 30 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
W OF SPAIN DIMINISHES.

$$
BLAKE

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