[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 03 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N5W 5N10W 6N25W 6N34W 7N42W 5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE AXIS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
2W-6W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
9W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE WELL S OF THE AXIS ALONG THE EQUATOR
S OF 2N BETWEEN 22W-34W. A SFC TROF IS ALIGNED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE AXIS ALONG 5N39W 11N39W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 32W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA AND
NE VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
SFC HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED TO THE W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...NOW
NEAR CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA...DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SAGGED SWD TO ALONG 31N OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS. THE FRONT HAS ONLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY
AND NOW WINDS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE W ATLC AND E
GULF (EXCEPT FOR 25 KT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS). THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO E/CNTRL TEXAS AND CONTINUES
TO DRAW LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT PENSACOLA
FLORIDA ALL THE WAY TO NE MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER S LOUISIANA
AND S MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 0.25 MILES
AT NEW ORLEANS. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NEWD FROM NE MEXICO AND SKIRTING THE
NW GULF. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS E OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 31N68W TO THE E CUBA AND IS PRODUCING AREAS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM SE CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. FLOW CONFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE DRY AIR BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SUBSIDENCE IS
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION BUT THERE ARE STILL PATCHES OF SHALLOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT ARE MOVING QUICKLY WWD OVER THE CNTRL
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...N OF THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND ALONG THE
COSTA RICAN COAST. WINDS OVER THE AREA REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY
25-30 KT ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB GALE IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR
28N49W WITH THE OCCLUSION EXTENDING ALONG 30N51W 32N48W
30N45W...THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N49W 16N56W. IN
ADDITION...A SFC TROF IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N45W 25N43W
19N45W WHILE ANOTHER EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 27N47W 23N50W. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS COLLOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND DOWNSTREAM
DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION N
OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-46W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W-51W AND
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 38W-43W. FARTHER
S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N41W AND AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE N SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING
ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 13N-21N. A SFC TROF IS MOVING FROM E TO W
OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 20N33W 27N36W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 29W-34W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N27W AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRY AIR EXTENDS ON
THE N SIDE FROM SRN MOROCCO TO BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
MADEIRA ISLAND.

$$
BERG


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