[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 03 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N20W 7N35W 5N60W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS 60 NM OFF THE S COAST OF LIBERIA AND WITHIN 90 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S
OF THE AXIS ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 21W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ABOUT 60 NM E OF THE ORINOCO DELTA AND OVER
SRN GUYANA AND SE VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
SFC HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED TO THE W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...NOW
OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SAGGED SWD TO ALONG 31N OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS. THE FRONT HAS ONLY WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY
AND NOW WINDS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE W ATLC AND E
GULF (EXCEPT FOR 25 KT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS). THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CNTRL TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO
DRAW LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST AND
EXTENDS UP TO 40 NM OFFSHORE...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 0.1
MILE AT HOUSTON. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NEWD FROM NE MEXICO AND SKIRTING THE
NW GULF. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDS E OF
THE BAHAMAS FROM 31N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS PRODUCING
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...
BAHAMAS...AND S FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. FLOW
CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE
DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION BUT THERE ARE STILL
PATCHES OF SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT ARE MOVING QUICKLY WWD
OVER THE CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES...N OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
COLOMBIA...OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COSTA RICAN
COAST. WINDS OVER THE AREA REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY 25-30 KT
ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB GALE IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR
28N49W WITH THE OCCLUSION EXTENDING ALONG 31N50W 32N46W...THEN
AS A COLD FRONT TO 26N45W 17N53W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
COLLOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N
BETWEEN 43W-46W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W-51W AND WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 38W-44W. FARTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 8N41W AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE N SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 13N-21N.
A SFC TROF IS MOVING FROM E TO W OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 20N33W
28N34W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
28W-33W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N28W AND A
NARROW SWATH OF DRY AIR EXTENDS ON THE N SIDE FROM SRN MOROCCO
TO BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MADEIRA ISLAND.

$$
BERG


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