[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 02 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 6N20W 7N35W 6N60W 4N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 5W-20W...FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 27W-44W...AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC...
SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...15-20 KT...OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
...GENERALLY S OF 28N AND E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BANKED OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS FROM 17N-26N DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND SUBSIDENCE E OF 90W.  A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST E OF FLORIDA IS RESPONSIBLE A FEW HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE.  ONLY
SUBTLE CHANGES LOOK LIKELY THIS WEEK WITH FRONTS STALLING N OF
THE REGION AND GENERALLY WEAKENING ELY FLOW SHIFTING TO SE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN US IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE WINDS OF
20-25 KT ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION.  CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N72W AND WITHIN
60 NM OF 12.5N74W TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS FROM SE CUBA THRU JAMAICA
THEN INTO COSTA RICA.  DRY ALOFT IS ANCHORED W OF 65W WHILE
BROAD SW FLOW EMERGING FROM S AMERICA IS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS THE CNTRL ATLC.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS DURING
THE WEEK WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC...
DEEPENING 1008 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR 29N50W...
DRIFTING SE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N46W TO 27N45W
20N50W DISSIPATING TO 16N57W.  THE LOW IS OCCLUDED WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO 32N49W 31N46W.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
LOW TO BE VERTICALLY STACKED TO THE UPPER LEVELS.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WHILE WIDELY
SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 22N.  UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N...WITH AXIS ALONG 38W...
COVERING THE AREA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO E TO THE CAPE
VERDES.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS SE OF TRINIDAD.  STRONG JET IN EXCESS OF 120 KT IS
ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG 18N-22N
OVER ATLC WATERS E OF 55W THRU THE CAPE VERDES ISLANDS.  FURTHER
NORTH...THREE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE CENTERED AT
30N48W...30N30W...AND 30N5W.  THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  ON THE SURFACE...STRONG TRADES ARE OVER
THE E ATLC FROM 10N-30N E OF 35W THANKS TO A TIGHT GRADIENT
PRODUCED BY A 1041 MB HIGH 250 NM NW OF PORTUGAL.

$$
FORMOSA



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