[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 04 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N25W 8N44W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 2N26W-3N32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 3N21W-4N33W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 6N35W-8N39W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE E UNITED STATES
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE
GULF AND THE W ATLC W OF 75W. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE GULF S OF 25N AND ACROSS
THE W ATLC S OF 28N. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF BERMUDA WSW
TO A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES TO
NEAR 30N93W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE S GULF MAINLY
OFF THE NE MEXICAN COAST AND THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG ARE REPORTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO N
VERA CRUZ TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OVER THE W ATLC AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A FRONT WILL
ENTER THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...
AREA IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W SW ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR COSTA RICA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS PRODUCING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W. UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH NEAR 31N48W
WITH A SURFACE 1008 MB GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27N49W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 22N49W TO 16N52W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N FROM 45W-49W AND N
OF 22N FROM 40W-44W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE SURFACE GALE CENTER
WEAKENING.

EAST ATLANTIC...
VERY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S
OF 23N FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N41W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS ALONG THE N SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION
ADVECTING ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO
JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 10N-20N. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 43W FROM 4N-13N. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 40W-46W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER AN UPPER LOW
PATTERN IS IN THE NE ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION
ABOUT 400 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE LOW NEAR 25N22W.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 32N25W SSW TO
17N44W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PATTERN OVER THE
NE WILL ROTATE TO AN EAST/WEST ALIGNMENT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

$$
WALLACE


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