[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 22 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N14W 2N40W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE 1N33W-4N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO
28N95W. SE TO S SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NE FLOW DOMINATES WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE CROSSING MEXICO
AND COVERS THE GULF PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
RAPIDLY E WITH AN EMBEDDED JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 110-130 KT
ACROSS THE N GULF FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED WHEN A COLD
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT THE FRONT ITSELF
MAY HANG UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON THU AS IT LOSES ITS INITIAL
PUSH.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR MARTINIQUE TO
13N67W N OF THE ABC ISLANDS. BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS UP TO 150 NM N OF THE FRONT AND IS
MOVING OVER THE ABC ISLANDS...POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE EASTERLY TRADES. MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS S TO OVER COSTA RICA
AND IS PRODUCING MOSTLY DRY SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW-W
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONLY
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO BUILD LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA
AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST.

EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N31W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 18N40W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
MARTINIQUE WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING N AND W OF THE
FRONT TO 75W. PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N30W
ALONG 24N31W TO 18N37W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 25W-30W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE E. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 45W WITH THE REMAINDER OF SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
ATLC UNDER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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