[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 21 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 2N15W 2N30W 3S40W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-38W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING SE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR BERMUDA.  A RIDGE EXTENDS WWD OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM MIAMI FLORIDA TO HOUSTON TEXAS.  WARM
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TRAVERSES CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING RAPIDLY E.  A 120-140 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF AT LEAST THROUGH WED
WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS
EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT THE
FRONT ITSELF MAY HANG UP OVER THE CNTRL GULF ON THU AS IT LOSES
ITS INITIAL PUSH. THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY LATER IN THE WEEK AND COULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND LIES GENERALLY BETWEEN DOMINICA AND
MARTINIQUE EXTENDING SW TO 14N68W.  A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDS UP TO 120 NM N OF THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
ABC ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEK AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE ELY TRADES.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS SWD PAST
COSTA RICA AND IS PRODUCING MOSTLY DRY SWLY FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.  A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING SW-W UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
ONLY SPORADIC SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC...
1027 MB HIGH REFERENCED IN THE ABOVE SECTION IS CENTERED JUST S
OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SE WITH
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING N OF 20N E OF 68W IN WEAKENING
COLD ADVECTION.  IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT LIES ALONG 32N34W 27N34W 17N50W 15N60W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO 90 NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N32W 25N32W 19N40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 27W-32W.
THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE E...APPROACHING
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
RE-CONVERGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS BUT WEAK RIDGING IS
KEEPING ALL MOISTURE N OF THE AREA.  THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC IS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-50W. A SHORTWAVE IS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 27N32W 32N35W AND IS
PRODUCING HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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