[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 22 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 2N19W 2N34W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 41W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 2W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLANTIC...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N66W
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICAN BORDER. SE TO S SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NE FLOW DOMINATES WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
CROSSING MEXICO AND COVERS THE GULF PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING RAPIDLY E WITH AN EMBEDDED JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF
90-130 KT ACROSS THE N GULF FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH
TOMORROW WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST LATER THAT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER
THE GULF WATERS BUT THE FRONT ITSELF MAY HANG UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF ON THU AS IT LOSES ITS INITIAL PUSH.

CARIBBEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BAND OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN
120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO THE ABC
ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE EASTERLY TRADES. MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
IS PRODUCING MOSTLY DRY SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW-W
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ONLY
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO BUILD LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM OVER W PANAMA/COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST.

EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A COLD FRONT
NEAR 32N40W S ALONG 27N29W TO 19N34W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 23W-29W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-75W. THESE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE E. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 23N FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 40W WITH THE REMAINDER OF SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
ATLC UNDER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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