[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 14 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 7W-15W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES IS BEING PUSHED TO THE E AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/
FRONTAL TROF MOVES SLOWLY TO THE TX COAST. THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT NOR ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE BOUNDARY RATHER DIFFICULT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING HAS ALSO SHIFTED EWD TO THE W ATLC WATERS AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES FROM TX TO LA.
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN
87W-93W...MOVING ACROSS SE LA AND THE N GULF WATERS TOWARDS THE
FL PANHANDLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS...FL...AND MEXICO AS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT
OVER THE N GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING EWD AND DISSIPATING OVER N FL BY MON
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
FAIRLY STEADY EASTERLY TRADES ARE RUNNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITH WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS PROPAGATING EWD MOSTLY OVER
OPEN WATERS. THE MAIN SOURCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IS A PERSISTENT
TROF WHICH NOW STRETCHES SW OF GUADELOUPE TO 10N67W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM NW OF THE TROF AND ALSO
200 NM S OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 75W-81W. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDS 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA. THE
GFS HANDLES EACH OF THESE AREAS RATHER WELL...MOVING THEM DUE W
AND APPROACHING HONDURAS/BELIZE BY MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NW/SE THRU
VENEZUELA THEN TO HISPANIOLA WITH VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N68W. A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED E OF THE HIGH ALONG 32N48W 27N53W
19N59W...THEN AS A TROF SW PAST GUADELOUPE WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM NW OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL TROF ALONG 32N49W 22N45W BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE
LIFTING N OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND UP TO 350 NM E OF
THE UPPER TROF APPROACHING A RIDGE ALONG 39W. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR
RUNNING UP THE SE SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A 1013 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED S OF
THE CANARIES NEAR 26N17W WITH TRMM IMAGERY INDICATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTENDING N OF 26N BETWEEN 10W-22W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SKIRT THE WESTERNMOST ISLANDS AND STALL NEAR 30N22W THROUGH
24 HRS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS RIDING UP THE WESTERN
SAHARA/MOROCCO COAST ALONG A WEAKENING 100 KT UPPER JET.
WIDESPREAD DUST AND HAZE CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM OVER MUCH OF
THE E ATLC WATERS WITH THE MAIN PLUME SURGING SWD TO 11N AND WWD
PAST 40W. VISIBILITIES ACROSS BOTH THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY
ISLAND ARCHIPELAGOES REMAIN BELOW 1 MILE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE SFC LOW BECOMES STATIONARY AND KEEPS THE MOST CONCENTRATED
DUST OVER THE SAME AREA.

$$
BERG


WWWW
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