[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 132320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 13 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 27W-31W.  CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N8W WITH MORE GARDEN-VARIETY TSTMS
NEAR 2N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N72W
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FROM NEW ORLEANS TO HOUSTON SW
INTO THE GULF TO 28N.  OTHERWISE BROKEN MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 87W-94W N OF 25N IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE.  UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
ABOUT 78W IS KEEPING THE REST OF THE AREA VERY QUIET WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.  A COLD FRONT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD ENTER THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT THOUGH IT
IS WEAK FRONT WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM RATHER THAN
A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN.  ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER
AIR SHOULD ENTER THE NE PART OF THE GULF BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR GUADELOUPE TO N
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.  THE TROUGH SEPARATES THE JUICY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S VERSUS DRIER AIR OVER PUERTO ALONG WITH 60S
FOR DEWPOINTS.  FEATURE IS SERVING AS A MECHANISM FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR AND W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 200 NM.  LOW
CLOUD CLUSTER FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 74W-79W IS ENHANCING LOCAL
CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR JAMAICA.  OTHERWISE TRADE WIND CUMULUS
DOMINATE AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS PUTTING A LID ON ANY DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.  TROUGH OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN SHOULD DRIFT NW.. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS MON AND IN PUERTO RICO BY LATER IN THE DAY.  NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONTS ARE IN THE CARDS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH
UPPER TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC RETREATING NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT CONTROLS THE W ATLC WITH A 1024 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N72W.  COLD FRONT LIES ALONG
31N50W TO 26N54W THEN S TO NEAR GUADELOUPE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 52W N OF 21N CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE AZORES IS WEDGING SOUTHWARD ALONG 31N39W TO 22N50W...
CAUSING INCREASING TRADEWINDS TO 25 KT IN THE AREA.  SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW-CLOUD CLUSTERS COVER THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT UNTIL
30W.  CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N20W BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH RUNS SW TO 9N37W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT LEADING TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER DRY AIR S OF 25N BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDES AND 40W.  1012 MB LOW IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NW
SAHARA NEAR 25N17W... A REFLECTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE E ATLC HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDS... THANKS A JET S OF THE LOW ADVECTING MID/UPPER MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS AFRICA.    LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE
DUST PLUME WHICH MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST 2 DAYS AGO IS ALONG
A LINE FROM 13N25W 17N37W 24N43W.  VISIBILITY REMAINS NEAR ONE
MILE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN SOME AREAS.  DUST THINS A
BIT BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE BUT VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BELOW 5
MILES IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.  ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH SLY FLOW NEAR THE EQUATOR
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TSTMS OVER BRAZIL.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
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