[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131828
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 13 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 5N10W 1N30W EQ50W 1N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-13W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W PRODUCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS.  AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.  A BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TX COAST...MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE CONVECTION IS ALIGNED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100 KT UPPER JET OVER LOUISIANA.  EXPECT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PRODUCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
PRECEDE THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR PUERTO RICO AT 19N66W.  SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FROM ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.  A SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N57W 16N62W
11N63W WITH LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
W VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA NWWD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS.  THE
ENTIRE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

ATLANTIC...
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W.  ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS W OF 65W.  A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 22N60W TO NEAR PUERTO
RICO AT 19N66W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 180 NM
E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 23W.  A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC BETWEEN 25W-45W N OF 15N.  A 1015 MB LOW IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 24N17W PRODUCING SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS.  A LARGE DUST/SAND PLUME WHICH MOVED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST 2 DAYS AGO IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND EXTENDS
N OF 16N E OF 23W...WITH ANOTHER PIECE WITHIN 350 NM NE OF LINE
14N26W 25N40W.  VISIBILITY HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 1 MILE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N21W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND
E OF 40W.  A 150 KT JET STREAK IS OVER W AFRICA ALONG 12N27W
30N10W PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER W AFRICA N OF 10N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W.

$$
FORMOSA




WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net