[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 14 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N0 2N15W 2N23W 1N30W 1.5N40W
1.5S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
135 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 7W-17W EXTENDING SW OF THE LIBERIAN
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 4N BETWEEN 27W-36W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE UP TO 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES IS BEING PUSHED EWD OVER THE W ATLC AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST U.S. WITH THE SRN PORTION
STALLING ALONG THE TX COAST. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME
A LITTLE SHARPER...PLACING THE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. MOIST SWLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SEA
FOG UP TO 90 NM OFF THE TX COAST BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS ALSO SHIFTED EWD TO THE W ATLC WATERS AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF NEW
ORLEANS LA ALONG 89W. A SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN PROPAGATING EWD
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IS NOW MOVING E OF PANAMA CITY FL
OVER THE PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS
PRODUCED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER LA HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 60 NM S
OF THE COAST AND CONTINUES TO TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-91W. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS...FL...AND
MEXICO AS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT OVER THE N GULF
WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MOVING EWD AND DISSIPATING OVER N FL BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST WED NIGHT BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR OVER THE E GULF AND FL THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
FAIRLY STEADY EASTERLY TRADES ARE RUNNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITH WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS PROPAGATING EWD MOSTLY OVER
OPEN WATERS. THE MAIN SOURCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IS A PERSISTENT
SFC TROF WHICH NOW STRETCHES SW OF GUADELOUPE TO 12N68W. AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM NW OF THE TROF AND
ALSO 220 NM SW OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W-81W. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDS 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA.
THE GFS HANDLES EACH OF THESE AREAS RATHER WELL...MOVING THEM
DUE W WITH THE FIRST BATCH APPROACHING HONDURAS/BELIZE BY
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NW/SE THRU VENEZUELA THEN TO HISPANIOLA WITH
VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE SFC
REFLECTION ALONG 69W/70W. A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING DOWN THE E
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...JUST ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N56W
30N65W...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE NOR DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FARTHER E...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ALONG 32N48W 27N53W TO GUADELOUPE WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM NW OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AN ISOLATED BURST OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FORMING FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 52W-55W. THE FRONT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG 32N45W 23N42W BUT
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE LIFTING N OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTEND UP TO 350 NM E OF THE UPPER TROF APPROACHING A RIDGE
ALONG 39W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A LARGE
UPPER LOW CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W WITH A
SLOT OF DRY AIR RUNNING UP THE SE SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA
COAST. A 1013 MB SFC LOW HAS BECOME COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND A TROF EXTENDS SE TO THE W SAHARA/MAURITANIA BORDER.
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING N OF 29N BETWEEN 14W-26W GENERALLY N OF THE LOW. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 24 HRS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS RIDING NE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
ON TUE AND WED. WIDESPREAD DUST AND HAZE CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM OVER MUCH OF THE E ATLC WATERS WITH THE MAIN PLUME
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE LOW...OR SE OF LINE 30N19W 17N25W
14N40W. VISIBILITIES ACROSS BOTH THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY
ISLAND ARCHIPELAGOES REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 MILES AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES STATIONARY AND KEEPS THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DUST OVER THE SAME AREA. THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WILL SEE MORE RAPID CLEARING TODAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SURGE PROPAGATES SWD TOWARDS THE ITCZ.

$$
BERG



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