[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 112348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 11 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 1N30W 2N40W 3N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N97W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLIES AND COLD ADVECTION COVER THE ENTIRE
GULF RESULTING IN A FIELD OF OPEN-CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME N AND NE GULF WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR IS MOVING OFF LAND. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS WITH OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE WEST.  CLOUDINESS CONTINUES INLAND OVER MEXICO AS NLY FLOW
ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NWD INTO THE SW
UNITED STATES.  THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND MUCH OF THE UPSTREAM
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE SPILLING INTO
THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 88W. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE
QUICKLY EWD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE W UNITED STATES.  EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF SUNDAY AS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM E CUBA TO S BELIZE ALONG 21N75W 18N80W 17N90W.  THE FRONT
LACKS UPPER SUPPORT WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM S MEXICO TO HISPANIOLA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE BROKEN
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 125
NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT.  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
NOTED N OF FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...A REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA SW TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF BOUNDARY.  FURTHER E...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
13N-20N BETWEEN 57W-62W.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 50W
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N59W SWD ALONG 26N64W
TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W.  A NARROW 30 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIES RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SOLID FIELD OF BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE
FRONT TO 78W.  THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GET REINFORCED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BY A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE E
UNITED STATES. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE N EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS
IT CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SHARP
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NWD FROM JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 30N47W.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N24W DOMINATES THE FAR E
ATLC.  CONFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT TO 20N.  A 90-100 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET LIES FURTHER S ALONG 12N/13N BETWEEN 60W-20W
PRODUCING STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.  THE
JET THEN TURNS POLEWARD AFTER THE W COAST OF AFRICA PRODUCING
DIVERGENT FLOW TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

$$
FORMOSA


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