[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 12 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N28W 2N40W EQ51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N E OF 10W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG OVER W VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM
2N-10N BETWEEN 64W-78W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COOL DRY WEATHER HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL
WITH THE RESPONSIBLE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED ALL THE WAY INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA AND HAS WEAKENED A BIT OVER THE PAST 6 HRS TO 1027 MB.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE HIGH WILL ALLOW ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S F EVEN AS FAR S AS SOUTH FLORIDA. PART OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL HUNG UP ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES
AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE HAVE PUSHED INLAND AS FAR
W AS A LINE ALONG 17N95W 20N97W 22N101W 25N100W 27N101W. THE AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY RATHER QUICKLY BEGINNING ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH
SCOOTS OFF THE E AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE TX
COAST SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT THEN THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE N GULF WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE
AS ITS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT DISSIPATES IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES BETWEEN A TROF
AND RIDGE. THE WEAKENING TROF EXTENDS FROM E CUBA ACROSS
HONDURAS TO A UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WHILE THE BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS N OF VENEZUELA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS/CNTRL
GUATEMALA BUT THE AIR MASS IS SO DRY THAT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER N HONDURAS...S
BELIZE...AND NE GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...THE HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING THAT AFFECTED THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR CARACAS A
COUPLE DAYS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED BY NOW A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
RAIN/TSTMS ARE FOCUSED OVER S/W VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. A WEAK
SFC TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS PRODUCING A
PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS FROM
32N58W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD BACK TO WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FLORIDA/SE U.S.
COAST. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY N OF 26N WITH THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
HAS BECOME RATHER BROAD AND IS CENTERED BETWEEN 55W-80W WITH A
STRONG VORT MAX CENTERED NEAR 34N72W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED
DOWNSTREAM ALONG 20N56W 32N47W AND IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW
PATCHY CLOUDS WITHIN THE SLY FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT.

EAST ATLANTIC...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W WITH ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING SW TO
15N44W. THE LOW IS UNDERLAIN BY A BROAD SFC RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM A 1042 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES SW INTO THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR
21N56W. ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TROPICAL REGION WITH A 100 KT JET ALONG 12N40W 13N23W THEN
EXTENDING NE INTO SAHARAN AFRICA.

$$
BERG


WWWW
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