[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 11 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N11W 5N20W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-30W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE S OF 6N BETWEEN
20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HAS NOW CLEARED THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN ITS WAKE.  POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES AND COLD ADVECTION COVER THE ENTIRE GULF RESULTING
IN A FIELD OF OPEN-CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT
THE EXTREME N AND NE GULF WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
IS MOVING OFF LAND. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG
MEXICO FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH
OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES INLAND OVER MEXICO AS NLY FLOW ENCOUNTERS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NWD INTO THE SW UNITED
STATES.  THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND MUCH OF THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE RESULTING IN MOSTLY
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER THE GULF.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY EWD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W UNITED STATES.  EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF SUNDAY AS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE.  THE FRONT LACKS UPPER SUPPORT WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
FROM S MEXICO TO HISPANIOLA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO PRODUCE BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF
BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
FRONT.  OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...A REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA SW TO NW
VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY.  FURTHER E...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
FACT...SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THIS MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS W OF
55W WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SWD ALONG
25N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W.  A NARROW 30 NM WIDE BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
WITH A SOLID FIELD OF BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF
THE FRONT.  THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GET REINFORCED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BY A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE E
UNITED STATES. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE N EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS
IT CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD EXTENDING FROM 32N55W TO THE
HISPANIOLA BY SAT AFTERNOON.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SHARP
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NWD FROM JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 30N50W.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW
JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W DOMINATES THE FAR E
ATLC.  CONFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT TO 20N.  A 90-100 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET LIES FURTHER S ALONG 12N/13N PRODUCING STRONG
WLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.  THE JET THEN TURNS
POLEWARD NEAR THE W COAST OF AFRICA PRODUCING DIVERGENT FLOW AND
ENHANCED ITCZ ACTIVITY BETWEEN 20W-40W.

$$
RHOME


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