[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 11 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N12W 7N16W EQ28W EQ39W THEN S
OF THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
4N12W...WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N22W-1N28W...AND FROM 1N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR FROM 25W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE AXIS FROM 34W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 21N92W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT S
TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
NW ALONG E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF N OF 25N W
OF 87W WITH AN EMBEDDED JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N61W TO NW VENEZUELA TO 11N69W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N FROM 65W-74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA
WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER HONDURAS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONTINUE SW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W
OF THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO 80W WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 29N. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NEAR 22N58W. SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N45W SW TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-32N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO THE E COAST OF
THE US N OF 22N W OF 60W WITH RIDGING TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 22N45W TO 16N45W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 16N FROM
40W-48W. NARROW RIDGE IS N OF 20N FROM 35W-40W WITH AXIS ALONG
38W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 29N20W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 18N E OF 35W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 20N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE W
ATL FROM 10N-25N W OF 45W.

$$
WALLACE



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