[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 08 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 1N20W 6N45W 4N60W 5N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN
30W-33W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES...MEXICO...AND THE GLFMEX WITH 120 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET JUST N OF 30N FROM NW MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
MEXICO  AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDINESS.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG 31N90W 29N93W
27N98W.  COMPOSITE NEXRAD RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 91W-96W.  A 1022 MB HIGH
IS OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W ADVECTING LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING ENTRENCHED...EXPECT THE FRONT
TO DRIFT NWD THIS EVENING WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH CURRENTLY OVER N FLORIDA.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE N
GULF COAST FROM THE SE TEXAS COAST EWD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL THEN MERGE WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BE PUSHING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THEN EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY WED.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED ALONG THE N GULF AS THE
SECOND COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROTRUDING NWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
W CUBA WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS INHIBITING JUST
ABOUT ALL DEEP CONVECTION SAVE A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS N
OF TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N60W TO 9N65W.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A DEEP-LAYERED LOW APPROXIMATELY
400 NM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N57W....RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED N/S ALONG
37W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 25W-45W...AND A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND NW AFRICA N OF 20N E OF 25W.
MUCH OF THE W ATLANTIC REMAINS TRANQUIL AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW E OF BERMUDA PRODUCES
DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ALOFT.  AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE
NLY FLOW CONTINUES W OF 60W WITH A FIELD OF OPEN-CELLULAR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE AREA.  OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE W ATLC DEEP LAYERED LOW
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N48W TO 14N60W THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 50W-52W.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL FINALLY
LIFT N OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
RIDES UP AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING THE E ATLANTIC
UNDER DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT.  CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING CLOUDS/PRECIP E OF 30W.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL WITH AN AREA OF DUST ORIGINATING
FROM AFRICA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LEADING EDGE BOUNDED BY 20N20W
10N29W 2N25W.

$$
FORMOSA


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