[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 08 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 1N20W 6N40W 5N58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ
AXIS FROM 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES...MEXICO...AND THE GLFMEX WITH 120 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET JUST N OF THE AREA FROM NW MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
MEXICO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS. CONFLUENT FLOW
AROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO FLORIDA...IS PRODUCING MAINLY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT PUSHED INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA INLAND OVER S TEXAS IN BETWEEN
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE.  THE FRONT LACKS SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SUPPORT BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING ENTRENCHED...EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT
NWD THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THE
ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH
CURRENTLY OVER N FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE N GULF COAST FROM THE SE TEXAS COAST EWD
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL THEN MERGE
WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BE PUSHING
SWD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THEN EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF
EARLY WED.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE N GULF AS THE SECOND COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE AREA ON
WED.

CARIBBEAN...
WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER
THE E PACIFIC JUST S OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 10N90W WITH RIDGE
PROTRUDING NWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA. OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS SW TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR COSTA RICA.  RESULTING FLOW
IS MOSTLY CONFLUENT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT SE OF A LINE
FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS INHIBITING
JUST ABOUT ALL DEEP CONVECTION SAVE A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
TSTMS JUST SE OF THE ABC ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N WINDWARD ISLANDS SW TO VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N68W.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE
ATLC WATERS WITH A DEEP-LAYERED LOW APPROXIMATELY 400 NM E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W....RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED N/S ALONG 37W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 25W-45W...AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE E ATLC AND NW AFRICA N OF 20N E OF 25W.  MUCH OF THE W ATLC
REMAINS TRANQUIL AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW E OF BERMUDA PRODUCES DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALOFT.  AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE NLY FLOW CONTINUES W OF
60W WITH A FIELD OF OPEN-CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINING
OVER THE AREA.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E
OF THE W ATLC DEEP LAYERED LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N46W TO THE N
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THE MOST NUMEROUS/STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS CONCENTRATED FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 45W-50W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT N OF THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THEN RIDES UP AND OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT.  CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FURTHER SUPPRESSING CLOUDS/PRECIP E OF 30W.  LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER
LEVELS AS WELL WITH AN AREA OF DUST ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA
MOVING WESTWARD WITH LEADING EDGE BOUNDED BY 20N20W 10N27W
2N23W.

$$
RHOME


WWWW
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