[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 08 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N1W 3N5W 3N11W 2N26W 2N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
45W...1S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...GRADUALLY BECOMING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...IN AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY-
TO-NORTHWESTERLY AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT
CROSSES FLORIDA TOWARD AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS...IN ADVANCE OF A TEXAS
COLD FRONT...SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 14N60W TO 12N67W NEAR SOME OF THE ISLANDS
OFF THE VENEZUELA COAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA BLOWING OVER THIS AREA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF 19N60W 16N66W 13N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 64W AND
68W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 17N63W 12N85W.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS
OF DRY AIR...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA COURTESY OF THE FLOW FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PASSING OVER MEXICO...AND SOME IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW FROM
SOUTH AMERICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A
BRANCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...WHICH IN THIS CASE RUNS
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA. MIDDLE
LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST-TO-WEST EAST OF 70W...STILL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 76W. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR
31N57W. THIS WHOLE LARGE SCALE FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1001
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N56W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N48W
TO 24N50W TO 20N52W 14N60W AND 12N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 100 TO 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 16N60W 20N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND
54W. A DENSE SHIELD OF COLD-TOP HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THIS AREA NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH
HAD BEEN ALONG A LINE FROM PORTUGAL TO COASTAL MOROCCO NOW HAS
MOVED MORE INLAND...GOING FROM NORTHERN AFRICA TO MAURITANIA
NEAR 20N10W TO 18N30W...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N48W 14N60W SURFACE TROUGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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