[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 09 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N7W 1N20W 3N30W 5N40W 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 5N37W 3N20W 4N8W 5N1W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING PACIFIC OCEAN
MOISTURE TO MEXICO AND MOST OF TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWEST OF 26N82W 25N90W 21N97W. GENTLE AND GRADUAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT STRADDLES THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
COASTS...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO AN
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS IN
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CONTINUAL DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
THROUGH 14N60W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST
BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SOUTHWEST OF 19N60W 17N64W 13N69W. HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL IS COMING OFF SOUTH AMERICA...EXITING
THE CARIBBEAN AREA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AS UPPER
LEVEL WEST-TO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BROAD AND GRADUAL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF THE MOSTLY-ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEANS. THE CYCLONIC CENTER
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 33N55W. THE SURFACE 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N57W...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BE NEAR 40N50W AFTER 24 HOURS. SURFACE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 23N50W TO 14N60W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RUNS FROM NORTHERN ALGERIA...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
32N45W 14N60W FRONTAL TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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