[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 07 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N0 3N12W 1N30W EQ41W 2S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
6W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS CURRENTLY UNDER A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN AS SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EWD TO THE W ATLC WATERS AND A COLD
FRONT SURGES SWD ACROSS TX. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AND
HAS REACHED THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...JUST INCHING INTO NRN
MEXICO...SUPPORTED BY A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF LOCATED OVER THE
U.S. ROCKIES. BROAD SWLY FLOW EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE TROF FROM
MEXICO TO THE W HALF OF THE GULF WITH A 110+ KT JET FROM NEAR
CHIHUAHUA NEWD TO THE W GREAT LAKES. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS
ARE MOVING EWD ALONG THE FRONT OVER E TX BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK SFC TROF IS ALSO
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM S TX TO NEAR MONTERREY
MEXICO WHERE HIGH PRES OVER N MEXICO MEETS THE SE RETURN FLOW
OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REACH THE FAR NW GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH
A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT THRU WED...THEN SLIDE SE THRU FL AND THE E GULF THU. IN
THE MEANTIME...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE E GULF/FL IS
PRODUCING NICE WEATHER WITH CLOUDS THICKENING CLOSER TO THE TX
COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PART OF
CNTRL AMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE E GULF/FLORIDA SITTING N OF
A TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS...AND THE FLOW IS RE-CONVERGING
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
ABOUT JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLC WATERS ACROSS DOMINICA TO NEAR BONAIRE AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE UP TO 150 NM NW OF THE
BOUNDARY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT OTHERWISE THE AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES.

ATLANTIC...
THE DEEP-LAYERED 1001 MB LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
AND REMAINS ABOUT 330 NM ESE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES A LARGE AREA FROM 45W TO 75W
AND DIPS DOWN TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS
BECOME QUITE CIRCULAR AND THE AIR MASSES HAVE BECOME WELL-MIXED
NEAR THE CENTER...A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL LOCATED
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEWD ALONG 15N61W 23N52W WHERE THE ELY
TRADES ARE CONVERGING WITH THE NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW. ALSO...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED BETWEEN 45W-55W
AND THIS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF
18N BETWEEN 46W-55W. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 53W-58W WITH ENHANCED DRYING TO THE S AND W OF THE LOW.
FARTHER E...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 40W AND ITS SHARPNESS
IS A BIG REASON FOR THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP LOW TO THE W. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF HAS CARVED OUT A
LARGE AREA E OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
35W...REACHING DOWN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SLIDING EWD INTO MAURITANIA. A SECOND DEEP-LAYERED
LOW IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE PORTUGUESE COAST AND IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER MOROCCO N OF 27N
BETWEEN 4W-12W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTEND S OF 16N WELL PAST
THE EQUATOR AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ITCZ CONVECTION. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPEW OFF THE
AFRICAN CONTINENT...REACHING AS FAR W AS 26W AND N OF THE ITCZ
TO 21N.

$$
BERG



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