[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 07 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N9W 3N12W 3N30W 3N46W 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 34W. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 4W AND
6W SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...NOW
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND
8W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEST TEXAS TO CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE ARE
MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH A SLOT OF
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE OF THEM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS
BEEN IN THE GULF HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...NOW ALONG 80W FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON THE MAP NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF COASTS OF
MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N55W TO 16N60W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ENDING NEAR 15N62W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF 80W...
AND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO WESTERN HONDURAS
WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES OVER THE
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SOUTHEAST OF 20N60W 16N70W 14N73W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF 73W...
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...
WHOSE BASE MAY SOMEWHERE NEAR 14N61W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 47W AND 75W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 29.5N 59.5W. THIS WHOLE LARGE SCALE
FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29.5N60W. OCCLUDED FRONT 31N50W 27N51W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N51W TO 20N55W TO 16N60W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N62W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE
29.5N 59.5W WATER VAPOR CENTER WITHIN 350 NM FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF IT...AND WELL NORTH OF 32N TO THE NORTH OF IT.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NM NORTHWEST OF 15N60W 20N50W...
AND FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
53W AND 63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM COASTAL
PORTUGAL TO CENTRAL MOROCCO TO 20N20W TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR 20N30W. SURFACE TROUGH 31N9W TO 27N15W TO 26N20W. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER MOROCCO NORTH OF 28N. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 7N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N50W 16N66W ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH
OF 20N.

$$
MT


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