[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 07 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N8W 3N12W 3N20W 3N30W 4N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
2N TO 5N BETWEEN 4W AND 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
26N113W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACROSS
INTERIOR MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...NOW ALONG A LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 27N84W BEYOND
32N82W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO 19N97W IN
MEXICO...NORTHWEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON THE MAP NORTH OF 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN 70W AND GULF COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N58W 19N60W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ENDING NEAR 16N66W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW PASSES OVER THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SOUTHEAST OF 20N62W
16N70W 14N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
EAST OF 73W...TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH...WHOSE BASE MAY SOMEWHERE NEAR 14N62W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 47W AND 76W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 30N59W. THIS WHOLE LARGE SCALE FEATURE
SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29.5N60W.
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH 32N50W 24N54W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 24N54W TO 20N58W 19N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ENDING NEAR 16N66W.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE
30N59W WATER VAPOR CENTER WITHIN 210 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
IT...WITHIN 400 NM TO THE WEST OF IT...AND WELL NORTH OF 32N TO
THE NORTH OF IT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND
55W...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 32N42W 20N45W AND 53W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 53W AND
63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM COASTAL PORTUGAL TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS/CENTRAL MOROCCO COAST TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR 22N30W. SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 31N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N15W TO 27N20W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE MOROCCO COAST...NOW FROM 27N
TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
32N50W 16N66W ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE
ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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