[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 07 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N0 4N15W 2N26W EQ42W 1S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO THRU THE
NW GULF INTO LOUISIANA BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE THRU THOSE AREAS.  PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING ALOFT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EWD TO THE W ATLC WATERS AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES S ACROSS TX.  FRONT IS STILL NW OF THE REGION BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT NW OF A LINE FROM
26N96.5W TO 29N93W S OF LAKE CHARLES.  A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
IS FORECAST UNTIL THE FRONT STALLS IN THE NW GULF... THEN SURGES
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE ROCKIES TROF RE-AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE E COAST OF THE USA.  AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND MOVE GENERALLY NE ALONG THE GULF
COAST TONIGHT THRU WED...THEN SLIDE SE THRU FL LATE THU. IN THE
MEANTIME...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE E GULF/FL IS PRODUCING
NICE WEATHER WITH CLOUDS THICKENING CLOSER TO THE TX COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PART OF CNTRL
AMERICA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF A TROF
OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS.  THE FLOW IS RE-CONVERGING OVER THE
SRN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF ABOUT
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS FROM
THE STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.  THIS PATTERN IS INHIBITING
JUST ABOUT ALL DEEP CONVECTION SAVE A FEW POSSIBLE TSTMS NEAR
THE ABC ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC WATERS ACROSS DOMINICA TO 13N65W WITH
TROUGHING REMAINING SW TO N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W.  LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE UP TO 200 NM NW OF
THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.  FAIR SKIES WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH THE CONTINUED NLY FLOW.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED 1001 MB LOW NEAR 29.5N59W HAS BEEN EASING EASTWARD
VERY SLOWLY...CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN JETSTREAM FAR TO THE N OVER
CANADA.  ASSOCIATED UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES A
LARGE AREA FROM 48W-72W DIPPING S TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THE
FRONTS ALONG THE FRONT ARE DISSIPATING BUT A REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT EXISTS FROM 30N49W 22N52W 15N60W...SERVING AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR A LARGE OUTBREAK OF TSTMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  A
LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATED AROUND THE SE PART OF THE SYSTEM...
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
19N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W.  INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
CORE UPPER LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 53W-59W WITH ENHANCED DRYING TO THE S AND W OF THE LOW.
LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED THOUGH A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND.  FARTHER E...A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 40W AND WITH A DEEP TROF CARVING OUT A
LARGE AREA E OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W...REACHING DOWN
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SLIDING EWD
INTO MAURITANIA. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE
PORTUGUESE COAST AND IS PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
OVER NW AFRICA N OF 28N BETWEEN 4W-15W. UPPER FLOW IS RATHER
ZONAL S OF 10N WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING ITCZ CONVECTION.
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT...REACHING
AS FAR W AS 26W AND N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N.

$$
BLAKE



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