[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 03 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 2N50W 4N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1017 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N90W AND
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N93W 16N93W.   A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO
ALONG 17N96W 23N103W 30N108W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
N OF THESE FRONTS.  20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  A 100-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF FLOWING FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E.  THE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS PRODUCING
UNFAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT.  THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE GULF BY LATE TOMORROW
WITH DRY AIR OVER THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF AND SOME
LINGERING LOW-CLOUDINESS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH SEASONABLE NE TRADES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.  THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND E OF 80W HAS CLUSTERS OF COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS POURING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  PUERTO RICO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S! IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LARGE CUTOFF LOW E OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SEND NLY WINDS AND
LARGE SWELLS.

ATLANTIC...
989 MB DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N59W...330 MILES ESE OF BERMUDA.  THIS CUTOFF LOW HAS BEEN
CHURNING UP THE ATLANTIC FOR DAYS WITH GALES PRESENT OVER A
LARGE AREA.  A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS ALSO OCCURRING DUE TO
THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVE SLOW MOTION OF THE LOW WITH SWELLS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 FT IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 20N54W TO 15N60W DISSIPATING OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 14N70W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 23N.  ELSEWHERE... THE WEATHER IS A LOT
QUIETER AS ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 45W.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM EQ-16N BETWEEN 30W-60W FILTERING IN FROM
ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION.  A FINAL INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE
IS A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST/DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM WEST AFRICA TO
35W INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 23N E
OF A LINE FROM 4N34W 23N26W.

$$
FORMOSA



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