[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 04 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 3N47W 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N17W 1N29W...AND SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 28N118W. TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER TO 16N121W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT FROM 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N77W OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N83W STILL OVER FLORIDA...FRONT INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W...TO 22N90W. SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT 22N90W CURVES TO 20N93W TO MEXICO EAST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STATIONARY FRONT BREAKS UP ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND RUNS FROM 17N96W TO 20N100W TO 24N105W
TO 30N108W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N100W IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WEST OF 70W...AS
SEEN IN CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IN
THE 04/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ORIGINATING OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EVERYWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 80W HAS
CLUSTERS OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS POURING OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A FRONT WHICH IS
STATIONARY NOW. EXPECT...WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LARGE
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SEND
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
991 MB SURFACE GALE CENTER NEAR 31N59W. DISSIPATING OCCLUDED
FRONT CURVES AROUND THIS FEATURE...NORTH OF THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY TO 31N49W. COLD FRONT 31N49W TO 22N53W. STATIONARY
FRONT 22N53W TO 16N60W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 16N60W
TO 14N70W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO
COMES OUT OF THE LOW CENTER AND CURVES THROUGH 30N55W TO 24N60W.
THE DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS NEAR 31N58W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CUTS
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN
48W AND FLORIDA...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N48W 29N46W 32N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. GENTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH
OF 23N49W 26N32W BEYOND 23N17W COVERS THE REST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

$$
MT

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