[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 03 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N23W 1N31W 3N47W 3N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 22W-36W
AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBTROPICAL JET LIES OVER THE NW GULF BRINGING MOSTLY UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS NW OF A LINE FROM 20N97W TO GAINESVILLE FLORIDA AND
IS ALSO FORMING SHOWERS OVER NE MEXICO/TEXAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.  SKIES ARE OVERCAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT RUNNING
FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW ALONG 24N90W THEN INTO MEXICO
NEAR 18N93W WITH A SMALL GAP OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO
JUST E OF MEXICO CITY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SE GULF.  THE
FRONT IS ONLY MAKING A SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E WITH BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT... AND THIS RIDGING IS LEADING TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE FRONT.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THRU THE GULF BY LATE TOMORROW WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE
AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF WHILE SOME
LINGERING LOW-CLOUDINESS REMAINS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
SEASONABLE NE TRADES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.  MID/UPPER
RIDGING IS LOCKED IN AND WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE W ATLC IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PLUS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU THE NW CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CONFINED TO SMALL
LOW/MIDDLE CLOUD CLUSTERS.  THESE CLUSTERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS IN
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W AS COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE
POURING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS IS A SOMEWHAT RARE EVENT
THIS MAGNITUDE OF A FRONT THRU PUERTO RICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S!  WITH THE COOL-AIR ALOFT ENHANCED THE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  OCCASIONAL WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK LIKELY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW E OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SEND NLY WINDS
AND LARGE SWELLS.

ATLANTIC...
POWERFUL 991 MB DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS NEAR 31N58W SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES ESE OF BERMUDA.  THIS CUTOFF LOW HAS BEEN CHURNING
UP THE ATLC FOR DAYS WITH GALES PRESENT OVER A LARGE AREA.  THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT FROM 31N42W TO 19N51W IS NOW STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATING AS A NEW COLD FRONT FORMS FROM 31N50W TO 19N60W.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT ENHANCED BY A
DIVERGENCE AREA E OF THE BIG LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 23N54W
31N49W.  OTHERWISE BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS COVERS THE ATLC NW OF
THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF THE TSTMS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 45W-62W.  A
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS ALSO OCCURRING DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
AND RELATIVE SLOW MOTION OF THE LOW WITH SWELLS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 20 FT IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC.  ELSEWHERE... THE
WEATHER IS A LOT QUIETER AS RIDGING COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
BETWEEN 28W-48W AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE N OF 20N W OF THE 38W.  ZONAL FLOW LIES IN THE NE ATLC
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MID-LATITUDES...INCREASING THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF MAURITANIA.
OUTSIDE OF TROUGHING ALONG ABOUT 58W IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLC... ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES N OF 10N WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING IN FROM ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION.  THESE ITCZ TSTMS
ARE FIRING NEAR UPPER RIDGING FROM 2N28W 5N45W 4N60W THEN SLY
WINDS ARE SENDING THE THIN CLOUDS TO THE N.  THE NW CORNER OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC LOOKS TO BE STAYING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AS
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE MADE WITH THE DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT LIKELY UPPING RAIN CHANCES N OF 16N W OF 52W BY THE
WEEKEND.  A FINAL INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE IS A PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST/DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS NEAR/WEST OF AFRICA AND
REACHES AS FAR W AS 32W...INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
THE ITCZ AND 23N E OF A LINE FROM 4N34W 23N26W.

$$
BLAKE


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