[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 6N20W 3N28W 2N36W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W.
ISOLATED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 5N W OF 40W.  A FEW
SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-6.5N BETWEEN 12W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED FT LAUDERDALE IN S FLORIDA AND
CONTINUES SW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NW OF KEY WEST THEN
IS STATIONARY TO 25N85W DISSIPATING TO 26N91W.  A FEW CLOUDS
ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  WEAK
1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OTHERWISE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS... PICKING UP A LITTLE OVER THE W GULF AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS.  A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N W OF 88W AND S OF 22N... OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE.  MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT SAVE THE NW CORNER.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT BUT IT LOOKS
QUITE WEAK WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PROBABLY ON
MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT.  CLUSTERS OF LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS
FROM FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-82W AND S OF 15N E OF 65W
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.  WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE DUE TO A HIGH OVER NRN S AMERICA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA RIDING
ALONG THE WLY FLOW.  OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN
SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE... THE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE QUIET IN
THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT OVER S FLORIDA EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 31N72W INTO A
DEVELOPING STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE N OF 29N NEAR THE FRONT.  A FEW PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS ARE
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 63W-70W IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT N OF 29N APPROACHING BERMUDA.  WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS FARTHER E ALONG 31N43W TO 28N48W... PULLING UP
STATIONARY RECENTLY.  SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT N OF 23N TO 65W.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A STRONGER 1033 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
MADEIRA ISLAND.  STRONG DRYING ALOFT IS BETWEEN 40W-60W ACROSS
THE REGION.  OTHERWISE... A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA...
ABOUT 1014 MB NEAR 21N39.5W IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN ALONG A
TROUGH FROM 19N43W TO 25N35W.  COMPLEX MID/UPPER LOW CENTER IS
FARTHER N NEAR 24N36W ALONG WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 23N-26.5N BETWEEN 33.5W37W.  THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE
SW EDGE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACCORDING TO NIGHT VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES.  MODELS SUGGEST THE WEAK LOW MIGHT PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS IN A NON-TROPICAL STATE.  FARTHER
S... A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N51W TO 11N45W...
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ELY TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG N OF 20N E OF 40W AND ELSEWHERE E
OF 30W N OF THE ITCZ.

$$
BLAKE

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