[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

1006 MB GALE LOW IS NEAR 24N36W IN THE NE ATLC MOVING WNW 5-10
KT.  WELL-PLACED BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006.7 MB AT 8Z WHEN THE SYSTEM PASSED...
FALLING RAPIDLY FROM 0Z AND 10.1 MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.  FIRST
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING IN BANDS AROUND
THE CENTER AND IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME "ZETA" BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN INCREASE THEREAFTER.
SSTS ARE MARGINAL.. ABOUT 23-24C BUT COOL 200 MB TEMPS COULD
HELP TO BALANCE THE BORDERLINE SSTS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0752Z
INDICATED WINDS OF GALE FORCE.. PROBABLY TO NEAR 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NRN
SEMICIRCLE AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE
SE QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N20W 2N30W 6N45W.  ITCZ IS
NOT WELL-DEFINED W OF 45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-42W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
4.5N14W 1.5N29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CONTINUES W
STATIONARY JUST NW OF KEY WEST TO 25.5N88W.  A FEW CLOUDS ARE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  WEAK 1014
MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OTHERWISE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS... PICKING UP A LITTLE OVER THE W GULF AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS.  A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N AND S OF 22N... OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE.  MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REGION WITH RATHER
DRY AIR ALOFT SAVE THE NW CORNER.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT BUT IT LOOKS
QUITE WEAK WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PROBABLY ON
MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM A JUST
S OF THE ISLE OF PINES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS PRODUCING ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT.  CLUSTERS OF LOW/MIDDLE
CLOUDS FROM FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-82W AND S OF 15N E OF 65W
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.  WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH SOME
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE DUE TO A HIGH OVER NRN S AMERICA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA RIDING
ALONG THE WLY FLOW.  OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN
SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE... THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET IN THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 31N68W
INTO A DEVELOPING STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND.  ANY GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE N OF THE AREA.  A FEW PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS ARE FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 63W-71W IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG &
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N NEAR BERMUDA TO 60W.  WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT IS FARTHER E ALONG 31N43W TO 28N48W.  SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 23N TO 65W.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS ALSO NW OF THE FRONT WITH A STRONGER 1031 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLAND.  STRONG DRYING ALOFT IS
BETWEEN 40W-60W ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE... A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 24N36W IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.  IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE E ATLC WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 21N39.5W SW OF THE MAIN
LOW.  FARTHER S... A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N52W TO
11N45W... PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.  ELY TRADES ARE FAIRLY STRONG N OF 20N E OF 40W AND
ELSEWHERE E OF 30W N OF THE ITCZ.

$$
BLAKE

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