[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 6N20W 3N28W 2N36W 2N44W
1N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-28W...HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS NEARLY EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MARCO ISLAND INTO THE GULF NEAR
25N83W. THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF
ALONG 25N83W 25N89W. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK HAS
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A NEARLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA UP TO 20N84W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS
TROUGH IS DIMINISHING. PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH
OF JAMAICA ARE DRIVEN BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS
WHICH ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 15N74W FROM THE
UW/CIMSS 29/21Z ANALYSIS. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. NO BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 992 MB LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER NEW JERSEY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N75W 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEATHER IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 1022 MB CENTER IS NEAR 37N64W
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AND A 1032 MB
CENTER IS NEAR 37N22W FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN.  IN BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE HIGHS...A STATIONARY FRONT
LIES FROM 31N43W TO 25N53W.  THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT SOUTH OF
31N.  A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 38W FROM 16N-22N. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG
DRYING ALOFT DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WEST OF 40W.  A MODERATE TO STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N34W. A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
20W-39W

$$
CANGIALOSI


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