[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291821
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 3N25W 2N36W 3N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM FROM 4N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE COLD FRONT EXTENDS NEARLY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
WESTERN GULF ALONG 25N86W-26N95W.  THIS MORNING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT WAS CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ...
WHILE WEAKENING.  THERE IS A MODERATE LINE OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER
FLORIDA.  SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
SIMILAR NW WINDS NORTH OF IT ... THOUGH THESE WILL WEAKEN BY
TOMORROW.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE
WESTERNMOST GULF AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS ... THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA HAS
A TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO N FLORIDA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
26N LIMITING MUCH CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA UP TO 20N84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N82W TO
15N83W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AS ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 29/1500 UTC.  UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR BELIZE TO JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA.  EASTERLY TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE
COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN EXPERIENCING WEAK NORTHEASTERLIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERNMOST NORTH ATLANTIC ... TWO HIGHS REIGN OVER MOST OF
THE AREA.  A 1022 CENTER IS CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND A 1035 CENTER
IS BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.  STRONG TRADES
ARE N OF 20N E OF 40W DUE TO THE EASTERN HIGH.  IN BETWEEN...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM 31N46W TO 23N55W.  HOWEVER THIS
FRONT HAS LITTLE TO NO REMAINING TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT SOUTH OF 31N.  UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATES THE
WEST ATLC WITH STRONG DRYING ALOFT AS WELL AS IN THE NE ATLC
PLUS THE TROPICAL ATLC WEST OF 40W.  A MODERATE TO STRONG
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 21N33W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
FROM 14N39W TO 20N36W.  QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS CLOSE
TO CLOSING OFF NEAR 16N38W AND THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DRIFTING IT TO THE NORTHWEST.  A LARGE
AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS FROM 18N-30N EAST OF 36W
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 23W-36W.  TRADES ARE
WEAKER SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW BUT ARE MODERATE ELSEWHERE
EAST OF 35W.

$$
LANDSEA


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