[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N20W 3N30W 8N45W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2.5N-4.5N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF 1.5N20W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2.5N-5N
BETWEEN 44W-47W.  ISOLATED TSTMS FROM EQ-4N W OF 48W AND WITHIN
90 NM OF 4.5N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO 28N84W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 26N92W
DISSIPATING INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W.  ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF CAPE CANAVERAL WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AS WELL.  WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH 20 KT WINDS OBSERVED ONLY BRIEFLY.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RETURN
FLOW AGAIN INCREASING IN S TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW.  THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THRU S FLORIDA WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. UPPER LOW OVER NE
OHIO HAS A TROUGH SOUTHWARD THRU FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 26N LIMITING CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
ALONG 10N82.5W TO 20N84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-20N BETWEEN 80W-84W DUE TO THE TROUGH.  THESE TSTMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA TO SE CUBA FROM 18N-21N FROM 75-80W.
TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING DOMINATES WITH HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF 73W WITH UPPER DRYING
INCREASING FROM NW TO SE.  BEST MOISTURE SHOULD SLIP WESTWARD
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CUBA AND HONDURAS.. POSSIBLY
INTO W CUBA/YUCATAN BY THE WEEKEND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA W OF PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM N AMERICA WITH GALES
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N AS IT EMERGES TODAY
OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE TWO HIGHS CONTROL A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH A 1021 CENTER CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND A 1032 CENTER OVER THE
AZORES.  STRONG TRADES ARE N OF 20N E OF 40W DUE TO THE HIGH.
IN BETWEEN... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N48W TO
26N53W DISSIPATING TO 22N55W.  THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC WITH STRONG DRYING
ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE NE ATLC PLUS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF
40W.  THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR
19N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION FROM 15N39W TO 21N35W.
A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS FROM 10N-24N E OF
32W IN ADDITION TO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 27W-37W DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.  THE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WNW ... SPREADING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE PATH.  TRADES ARE MUCH LIGHTER S OF
THE UPPER LOW BUT ARE FAIRLY BRISK ELSEWHERE S OF 20N E OF 30W
AND N OF 20N E OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE

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