[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N20W 2N40W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 45W-48W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 2.5N-4N BETWEEN 19W-31W WITH AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS
NEAR 1.5N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SW GEORGIA TO
26N92W INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.  SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
NONEXISTENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH A FEW EARLIER TSTMS OVER NE
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AND NOW JUST A FEW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  SW WINDS TO 25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER NE
WINDS BEHIND IT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RETURN FLOW AGAIN INCREASING IN S
TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW.  THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THRU
S FLORIDA WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS.. UPPER LOW OVER OHIO HAS A TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO N
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 26N LIMITING
MUCH CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
ALONG TO 18N84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-20N
BETWEEN 80W-84W DUE TO THE TROUGH AND A LITTLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE.  THESE TSTMS CONTINUE EASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA TO SE
CUBA FROM 18N-21N FROM 75-80W.  TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN
CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
DOMINATES WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF 73W WITH
UPPER DRYING FROM NW TO SE.  BEST MOISTURE SHOULD SLIP WESTWARD
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CUBA AND HONDURAS.. POSSIBLY
INTO W CUBA/YUCATAN BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO HIGHS CONTROL A MAJORITY OF THE AREA... WITH A 1021 CENTER
CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND A 1032 CENTER OVER THE AZORES.  STRONG
TRADES ARE N OF 20N E OF 40W DUE TO THE HIGH.  IN BETWEEN... A
STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM 31N49W TO 23N58W.  THERE IS STILL A
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N.  UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATES THE W
ATLC WITH STRONG DRYING ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE NE ATLC PLUS
THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W.  THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IS A
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 19N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION FROM
15N39W TO 19N35W.  A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
IS FROM 10N-25N E OF 36W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 25W-36W.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WNW
... SPREADING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE
PATH.  TRADES ARE MUCH LIGHTER S OF THE UPPER LOW BUT ARE FAIRLY
BRISK ELSEWHERE E OF 35W.

$$
BLAKE

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