[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W.  FAIR WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS N OF 23N...WHILE MOIST SW FLOW
FROM THE E PACIFIC IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 23N
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SPREADING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE
SE CORNER OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF TODAY...THEN MOVE E ACROSS FLORIDA
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT
CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS
E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 24N70W 18N77W. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8.5N75W. EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WHERE PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
65W.  UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE E PACIFIC
MOISTURE TO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. A PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 82W-83W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE E TO HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA AT
32N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 18N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLC N OF
24N.TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION OF COLD
AIR OVER THE WARM OCEAN ARE FOUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
TONGUE OF COLD AIR IS OBSERVED OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W
AND N OF 30N.  BROAD RIDGE IS  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
10N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  EAST OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
LIES ALONG 39-40W. AN UPPER LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
23N-33W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-20N
BETWEEN 20W-35W.

$$
GR



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